Today’s topic will feel somewhat similar – dreadful, yet filled with captivating insights.
We address the war in Ukraine becuase very few sources discuss the greenhouse gas emissions caused by military conflicts.
Moreover, since these estimations are challenging, they can teach us valuable lessons for our own quantification efforts.
Today's Lesson: The Footprint Of War
Learning from a gruesome yet impactful topic.
Number Of The Day
Approximately 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed to the military. A staggering $2.4 trillion USD was spent on the military in 2023, representing an increase of 6.8% compared to the previous year. A world without arms might be an idealisitic dream, yet, the Israel-Gaza conflict alone produced approximately 281,000 tons of CO2e in just 60 days.
5.5
Disentangling the GHG of War
Much like surgeons in an emergency room, we must adapt to the turmoil of disturbing topics like climate change, war, or disease - without letting our emotions cloud our judgment.
Let's train this skill, exploring the impact of the war in Ukraine and identify lessons we can apply to our own quantification efforts.
The Hidden Impact of Militaries
According to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for national reporting, emissions from the military are typically categorized as either “non-specified” or listed separately as bunker fuel. That means, in theory...
These are the contribution of the main emissions sources to the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions as published by Sparrevik et al.
“The IEA [International Energy Agency] has found that in practice, most countries consider information on military consumption as confidential and therefore either combine it with other information or do not include it at all” (IEA, 2023, p. 47).
Thus, just like in the lab, we must identify impacts ourselves.
Starting Broad
Normally, we would begin with the bigger picture—e.g., energy consumption and spending in our institutes. For today's topic, we assess the overall GHG emissions of Ukraine.
Irrespective of war preparation, Ukraine’s economy contracted significantly by nearly 30% in 2022.
Available data for the first 18 months of the war indicate reductions amounting to a staggering 157 Mt CO₂e, mainly due to:
A decrease in emissions from the metal production sector (accounting for 36%).
Reduced electricity and heat production (accounting for 30%).
Accounting Limitations
However, these figures have important limitations. They exclude emissions from direct warfare, the impacts of 8.1 million refugees, and the emissions that will result from future reconstruction.
You can find a truly in depth report on these emission right here.
Therefore, just like in our everyday work, we need to look beyond broadly reported estimates to identify all impacts:
1. Production of War Machinery
The initial manufacturing of machinery is an obvious impact to quantify, normally included in Scope 3 emissions.
For example, during the first 12 months of the war in Ukraine:
5,000 types of missiles were launched.
Over 18.8 million rounds of 152/155 mm ammunition were fired.
Approximately 91,500 bombs with 213 kg of explosives were detonated.
= Together, these activities accounted for approximately 283.4 kilotons of CO₂ emissions.
Much like the energy consumption of equipment in a lab, the fuel usage during military operations generates staggering "silent" impacts:
A Russian tank consumes 460–500 liters of fuel per 100 km.
An SU-27 military aircraft uses 3,040 kg of aviation kerosene per hour at cruising speed.
= Fuel consumption from Russia (6.3 Mt) and Ukraine (1.8 Mt) resulted in an overall impact of 32 Mt CO₂e.
3. Direct Results of Warfare
In our labs, item use and side-products from syntheses might take center stage, but in Ukraine, the following effects dominate:
Detonation of shells, including the chemical reactions during and after explosions in the atmosphere.
Fires at oil depots and forests (e.g., over 22,000 hectares of forest burned in the Chernobyl exclusion zone in the war’s first three months).
Trees felled for trenches and shelters.
= Together, these effects released an estimated 46 Mt CO₂e.
4. Impacts Beyond the "Battlefield"
War has ripple effects that extend far beyond its immediate zone. For instance, airspace restrictions forced airlines to reroute flights, increasing travel times and fuel consumption.
Flights for refugees alone resulted in an additional 12 Mt CO₂e.
5. Post-War Reconstruction
Just as we repair broken lab equipment, post-war reconstruction will demand massive resources.
Activities such as de-mining and rebuilding infrastructure are expected to contribute an additional 50.2 Mt CO₂e over time.
Applying The Knowledge
When it comes to identifying factors that contribute to environmental impacts, I woud advise using a flow scheme similar to what we did above.
Take Care During Accounting
When identifying factors that contribute to environmental impacts, I recommend using a flow scheme like the one we followed above.
Take Care During Accounting
The direct impacts of the war in Ukraine are estimated at 77–83 Mt CO₂e. This figure rises to approximately 150 Mt CO₂e when reconstruction (50 Mt) and refugee-related aviation emissions (17 Mt) are included.
These are the annual emissions of various countries within the EU, and for Microsoft according to its own report. Note that the 150 Mt CO2e for the War of Ukraine are measured within 18 months and neither account for Ukraine’s reduced footprint, nor the full impact of refugees in other countries.
However, subtracting the 155 Mt CO₂e "saved" due to reduced national consumption is insufficient because it excludes:
A) Emissions from producing and transporting war machinery in the US, EU, and Russia.
B) The environmental footprint of refugees in host countries.
Similarly, in our own work: outsourcing tasks to a contract lab might lower your direct emissions, but unless the lab operates more efficiently, total emissions remain unchanged.
Upcoming Lesson:
The Staggering Sustainability Effect Of Greener Equipment
How We Feel Today
References
Bun, R., et al., 2024. Tracking unaccounted greenhouse gas emissions due to the war in Ukraine since 2022. Science of The Total Environment, 914, 169879. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169879
Sparrevik, M., & Utstøl, S., 2020. Assessing life cycle greenhouse gas emissions in the Norwegian defence sector for climate change mitigation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 244, 119196. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119196
de Klerk, L., et al., 2023. Climate damage caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine. 1 December 2023.
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